Just 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as the Villa manager berated him over missing a through-ball. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a sign or the source of the team's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, however, the touchline reaction was decidedly more positive. When Rogers drilled in his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team were on their way to a 10th successive win , despite not winning any of their first six games, find themselves a mere three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Challengers?
That’s an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the wins have piled up.
Per Opta, on just two occasions has the team registered an expected goals figure notably superior than their opponents. For a team who have put together 10 in a row, Villa look strangely fragile – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with rivals and then rely on their talisman to rescue them with two crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it occurred in London, and again against United.
Rogers' first goal originated from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge they must confront over the coming weeks. The forward, surely, will not continue to thrashing the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Could it be an alternative path in which, rather than luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs could still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the force he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.
This could contain the potential of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought the midfielder now would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential England player.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. When Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
